Current program
Research prospectus · September 2026
One threshold, two channels
A calibration question for the Medicare Shared Savings Program minimum savings rate: one corridor governs uncertainty channels that scale differently with population size.
Working paper · In development
Settlement reliability in value-based care
Contractual verdicts, counterfactual policy sensitivity, and the reliability of relying on a settled result.
Applied methods paper · In development
Identification under consumed support
What a disciplined assignment rule can remove from the evidence available to evaluate it, and what a properly bounded refusal establishes.
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