Research

Verify the claims.

Formal and empirical work carries the evidentiary burden. Status labels distinguish a prospectus from a working paper and a working paper from a publication.

Current program

Research prospectus · September 2026

One threshold, two channels

A calibration question for the Medicare Shared Savings Program minimum savings rate: one corridor governs uncertainty channels that scale differently with population size.

Working paper · In development

Settlement reliability in value-based care

Contractual verdicts, counterfactual policy sensitivity, and the reliability of relying on a settled result.

Applied methods paper · In development

Identification under consumed support

What a disciplined assignment rule can remove from the evidence available to evaluate it, and what a properly bounded refusal establishes.

Research materials will be linked when they are ready for circulation. No item is presented as peer reviewed or published unless that status is explicit.

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